Daily Archives: May 19, 2010

Mauritius 2010

Mauritius held a general election for its 69-seat National Assembly on May 5. The UK election on May 6 and other issues made sure that I’d forget this election, but late coverage is better than nothing. Mauritius is a very interesting country, and considered one of Africa’s success stories due to its strong democratic tradition and an economy – which, somewhat uniquely for an island country, is not based on one crop. Mauritius gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1968 and became a republic in 1992, but the island, which was French between 1715 and 1810, maintains a strong French linguistic tradition, the result of an 1810 deal which allowed settlers to keep the French language and criminal law. However, a majority of Mauritians are of Indian origin, the result of massive immigration to the island under British rule to work in sugar cane plantations. Only a minority are Creole, Franco-Mauritian or Sino-Mauritian. The result of this ethnic makeup has been a strong penchant towards communalism, exemplified by the racial divisions of parties but also businesses, employment and so forth. Despite this, ethnic relations have always been peaceful, thereby helping the emergence of Mauritius as a developed, diversified modern economy and major economic and political hub of the southern Indian Ocean – something also helped by stable politics and a democratic tradition inherited from the British.

Stable politics doesn’t mean stable coalitions, however. Elections in Mauritius are often won by coalitions, and these coalitions are dominated by the island’s three main parties. Two of them fight for working-class Indian votes, and one is more multi-communal though it does tend to draw its support from non-Indians. The Mauritian Labour Party (PTr) was founded in 1936 on the model of its British counterpart, and sought independence for the island and various labour rights for Indians then employed in sugar plantations. It is dominated by the Ramgoolam family, of which the nation’s first Prime Minister, Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam and current Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam are the most famous standard-bearers. The PTr’s ally in 2010, but rival in 2005, is the Militant Socialist Movement (MSM), founded in 1983. The MSM, of which incumbent President Sir  Aneerood Jugnauth, the ‘father of the Republic’, is the historical leader, is also a rural-based Indian-dominated party. In opposition to the PTr-MSM alliance this year was the 2005 ally of the MSM, the Mauritian Militant Movement (MMM), founded in 1969 which is a more urban and multi-communal party. Its leader since 1976 has been Paul Bérenger, a Franco-Mauritian, and Bérenger was Prime Minister between 2003 and 2005 at the head of a MMM-MSM coalition, which fell apart this year. This year, the PTr was allied with the MMM and the smaller Mauritian Social Democrat Party (PMSD), the party of the Duval clan (a Creole family), which opposed independence in 1967 (the 1967 elections were won by Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam) and traditionally represents the wealthiest of voters, most of them being old Franco-Mauritian plantation owners. The PMSD’s current leader is Xavier-Luc Duval, Vice Prime Minister. This alliance, branded Alliance de l’avenir, was opposed by the MMM-led Alliance du cœur, but also the Muslim (16% of the population) based Mauritian Solidarity Front (FSM), the former Hizbullah (no relation to the Hezbollah). The island of Rodrigues, the largest and most important of the three island dependencies of the main island, has its own political parties. Rodrigues is largely Catholic, white or Creole, which explains its political differences.

The National Assembly has 62 seats elected in 21 multi-member constituency, all of which have 3 seats except a four-seater (Grand River North West and Port Louis West) and a two-seat Rodrigues constituency. The island of Agalega is attached to the 3rd constituency. In addition, in a clear example of the communalist structure of politics, 8 additional seats are distributed (really, appointed by the Supreme Court) to ethnic groups and losing candidates. It is known as the ‘best loser system’. Only 7 of these 8 seats were distributed this time, apparently since neither of the two parties eligible for the eight seat – the FSM and the Rodrigues Movement had a Sino-Mauritian candidate, and the eight seat is given to a Sino-Mauritian.

Here are the results:

Alliance de l’avenir 49.69% winning 45 seats (41+4)
Alliance du cœur 42.01% winning 20 seats (18+2)
Mauritian Solidarity Front 2.54% winning 1 seat (1+0)
Rodrigues Movement 1.04% winning 2 seats (2+0)
Rodrigues People’s Organisation 0.93% winning 1 seats (0+1)

Base map and results map quasi-entirely done by Xahar, a close friend of the editor

The map above shows the percentage vote polled by each party overall, because results are reported by candidates, each voter having three votes. The pattern is quite clear and fits in with the history of each party. The PTr-MSM alliance dominated in rural areas, where a lot of Indians live and historically worked in old sugar plantations, or, since more recently, in small manufacturing industries. The MMM alliance dominated in two areas; the urbanized area around the capital, Port-Louis, and around Beau Bassin. The FSM elected its sole MP in Port Louis Maritime and Port Louis East, and Muslim candidates did well in Port-Louis. The PTr-MSM accused the MMM of going after Muslim votes, which perhaps explains the MMM’s strong performance in Port-Louis. The MMM also won inland around Curepipe and Midlands, which seem to be well-off largely non-Indian areas.

Arkansas, Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Oregon (USA) Primaries 2010

More coverage of primary season in the United States with the four states which voted last night: Arkansas, Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Oregon.

Arkansas

Arkansas’ Class III Senate seat is up for election this year. Incumbent Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln, a conservative Blue Dog, was first elected in 1998 and re-elected in 2004. She’s up for re-election this year, but her closeness to corporate America and her conservative votes make her one of the most vulnerable senators up this cycle, and on top of that she’s never been really much of a strong incumbent. She won in 1998 with 55% in 1998 and “only” 56% in 2004, despite Arkansas’ strong Democratic leanings at the state level. Her conservative votes, notably her much-noted opposition to health care (likely the result of a close relation with corporations), won her much ire from liberal Democrats and trade unions, who backed the insurgent Lt. Governor Bill Halter, who staged a late primary challenge to the weak incumbent. A third candidate, a conservative Democrat to the right of Lincoln (and very much anti-Obama), DC Morrison also ran.

The Republicans have been polling ahead of Democrats in all polling, and their field was dominated early on by Representative John Boozman, a popular representative from the Ozarks region of northwestern Arkansas. He faced a challenge from 2004 nominee Jim Holt and State Senator Gilbert Baker amongst others, but he was always the likely nominee.

Here are the results on the Democratic side, with 98.9% reporting:

Blanche Lincoln (D) 44.5%
Bill Halter (D) 42.5%

DC Morrison (D) 13.0%

There are no results from Searcy County (in white)

Halter and Lincoln will face off again in a runoff to be held on June 8. Halter came very close, sometimes even ahead at some points during the night, of Senator Lincoln, showing how extremely vulnerable she is. She seems to have held black voters and won in Little Rock (and the Ozarks), but Halter has seemingly dominated in large swathes of rural Arkansas, somewhat interestingly for the liberal insurgent to the conservative Blue Dog. It remains to be seen if Lincoln has an edge in the runoff, and if she can win the right-wing Morrison voters, but on the basis of last night’s results, she seems extremely vulnerable to Halter, who will have more time to polish his message, in a runoff. Yet, a runoff means that this race stretches out for a long time and will likely result in an internal division within the party, helping the Republicans. Boozman won 53% last night, meaning that there will be no runoff. Holt won a meager 17% while Gilbert Baker won 11%. Boozman must still be counted at the overwhelming favourite to win in November.

Arkansas’ Democratic Governor Mike Beebe, who succeeded retiring Republican Mike Huckabee in 2006, remains extremely popular and won’t face stiff competition from Republican Jim Keet. In fact, the surprise is that the Republicans actually managed to find a candidate, given that they didn’t field one against Senator Mark Pryor in 2006, who only faced a Greenie.

Kentucky

Kentucky’s Class III Senate seat is up for election this year. Republican incumbent Jim Bunning, first elected narrowly in 1998 and re-elected by a similarly narrow margin in 2004, is retiring after a series of controversial statements he made on various topics. In fact, he risked losing re-election if he ran. His retirement opened up the Republican field, which became a race between two candidates: Trey Grayson, Kentucky’s Secretary of State and the early-on establishment candidate and ophthalmologist Rand Paul, the son of Ron Paul, and also a low-taxes campaigner and activist. Paul quickly seize Grayson’s early lead and led by double-digit in polls prior the primary. Rand Paul campaigned against the PATRIOT Act and against taxes, making him the candidate of the Tea Partiers, but the rest of his platform was generally conservative: pro-life, anti-gay marriage and the like. Obviously, to win in a state like Kentucky, which is as far away from libertarianism as you can get, you need to have the conservative rhetoric. Paul’s success came more from his insurgent anti-Washington attitude than from any love of libertarianism in a socially conservative state.

The Democrats had a contested race as well, between Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway. Mongiardo was the favourite in all polls, and was the most conservative candidate in the race, while Conway, the insurgent, was the liberal candidate in the race.

Rand Paul (R) 58.8%
Trey Grayson (R) 35.4%
Bill Johnson (R) 2.2%
John Stephenson (R) 2.0%
Jon J. Scribner (R) 0.8%
Gurley L. Martin (R) 0.8%

Jack Conway (D) 44.1%
Daniel Mongiardo (D) 43.1%
Darlene Fitzgerald Price (D) 5.7%
James Buckmaster (D) 4.0%
Maurice Sweeney (D) 3.4%

Conway’s narrow victory was the marking result of the Kentucky primaries, especially given that Mongiardo had led in all but one poll (in December 2009). The map of the race reveals a close division between the coal mining regions of eastern Kentucky, where Mongiardo is from and where old Blue Dog-type populist politics dominate (as well as in the Purchase area of western Kentucky, the traditional Dixiecrat stronghold of the state) and Conway’s strong victories in Louisville and other more urbanized or developed areas in central Kentucky. Mongiardo has asked for a recanvass of the votes, but it’s unlikely that Conway’s victory will be fought. On the Republican side, Paul dominated all over, with the exception of a handful of counties, mostly in eastern Kentucky. Again, Paul played best in the same urbanized-developed area where Conway did best, on the Republican side, these areas include a lot of suburbs where low-tax rhetoric works wonder (just like Stutzman won Indianapolis suburbs in Indiana two weeks ago). Polls have given Paul a narrow advantage, but Conway is shown to be a stronger candidate than Mongiardo, meaning that this race is best called a tossup.

Oregon

Oregon’s Class III Senate seat is up for election this year. Democratic incumbent Ron Wyden is favoured to win easily, and he beat minor primary challengers on the Democratic side with over 90% of the vote. Jim Huffman, a little know uni prof of some sort, won the Republican primary with nearly 42%, while his closest opponent polled 15%. Oregon’s Senate contest is not being watched much, and only one poll – by Rasmussen – was done in the state, showing Wyden leading Huffman 49-35. For the record, Oregon votes entirely by mail or drop-off ballot in primaries.

The Oregon gubernatorial contest to replace term-limited Governor Ted Kulongoski (D) might be a bit hotter than the Senate race. Former Governor John Kitzhaber (Governor between 1995 and 2003) won the Democratic primary with 66% of the vote against 29.5% for former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury. For once, the Republican establishment candidate prevailed: Chris Dudley, a former NBA player, won 39.9% against 31.9% for Allen Alley, who found most of his strength in conservative rural eastern Oregon. Kitzhaber got national attention when he literally saved somebody’s life at a debate earlier this month. A Rasmussen poll in April showed both Dudley and Kitzhaber tied at 41% each, but then, Rasmussen has weird results at times.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania’s Class III Senate seat is up for election this year. The seat has been held by Arlen Specter since 1981, first elected as a moderate Republican and last re-elected by a wide margin in 2004. Specter, who became more and more at odds with the growingly conservative Republican Party, was never the favourite of conservatives. He narrowly survived a primary challenge by conservative Republican Congressman Pat Toomey, and was likely to face an extremely tough race against Toomey again in 2010, especially after being one of 3 Senate Republicans to vote in favour of Obama’s bailout package. Then, Specter left the party on April 28, 2009 and became a Democrat and voted for the healthcare bill. He faced opposition on the Democratic side from Congressman Joe Sestak, a former US Navy Vice Admiral and a liberal Democrat. Sestak ran to Specter’s left, and always referred to himself as Joe Sestak, the Democrat, a snide remark at Specter’s former Republican affiliation. Specter won the endorsement of Obama, Biden, Governor Ed Rendell, Harry Reid, John Kerry, the mayors of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, the state Democratic Party and most trade unions. Sestak notably won Barney Frank, NARAL and MoveOn’s endorsement. Specter had a huge lead over Sestak in 2009, but he blew it away thanks to a poor campaign, and by election day, it was tied.

On the Republican side, Pat Toomey, already running against Specter, became the favourite and faced opposition only from the fringe and perennial candidate Peg Luksik. Toomey, the former leader of the fiscally conservative Club for Growth, is a favourite of the low-taxes and anti-pork crowd.

Here are the results:

Joe Sestak (D) 54.0%
Arlen Specter (D) 46.0%

Pat Toomey (R) 81.5%
Peg Luksik (R) 18.5%

Sestak’s victory was surprisingly large, despite Specter leading early returns and tied polling prior to the primary. He won most support in rural areas, while Specter only won Philadelphia (where the Democratic machine and black voters backed him), Dauphin and Lackawanna counties (blue-collar areas where local party support and unions won it for Specter). Seemingly, wealthy suburban voters as well as rural voters in traditionally Republican inland Pennsylvania were Sestak’s strongest backers. Sestak’s victory is yet another in a series of anti-establishment victories by insurgents, and Specter is the second sitting Senator to lose renomination in 2010 after Utah Republican Senator Bob Bennett fell victim to right-wing opponents at a State Convention earlier this month. Sestak is seen by most as the strongest candidate to take on Toomey, who still maintains a narrow lead in polls – though Sestak could narrow that down and win.

On the gubernatorial side, incumbent Governor Ed Rendell (D) is term-limited. The Republicans, who nominated Attorney General Tom Corbett (69-31 against State Rep Sam Rohrer) is the favourite against the Democrats. Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) Chief Executive Dan Onorato was the top contender on the Democratic field against Auditor General Jack Wagner, former Congressman Joe Hoeffel and State Senator Anthony Williams. Onorato won 45% against 24% for Wagner, 18% for Williams and 13% for Hoeffel. A map of that primary is attached to the Senatorial primary map. I don’t think it should be too hard to figure out where Williams and Hoeffel are from.

In final news, in last week’s West Virginia primary, long-time Democratic Congressman Alan Mollohan, representing WV-01 since 1983, fell victim to a right-wing primary challenger (Mollohan is already a blue dog, so imagine more right-wing than him) Mike Oliverio, a State Senator. Oliverio is quite far to the right and it would be hard to distinguish him from a conservative Republican.