Calgary-Glenmore (Alberta) by-election 2009

As previewed in the last post, Calgary-Glenmore, a provincial constituency in southwestern Calgary (Alberta) held a by-election to replace outgoing Progressive Conservative (PC) MLA Ron Stevens, who was also Deputy Premier, yesterday, September 14. I talked about the potential of a close race for the PC candidate, given the unpopularity of the Stelmach government in the province but I kept in mind that this was a relatively safe (by local standards) affluent constituency in suburban Calgary, but what happened was quite a shocker.

Paul Hinman (Wildrose) 36.74% (+28.67%)
Avalon Roberts (Liberal) 34.24% (+1.07%)
Diane Colley-Urquhart (PC) 25.96% (-24.71%)
Eric Carpendale (NDP) 1.34% (-2.42%)
Len Skowronski (SoCred) 1.07%
Antoni Grochowski 0.64%
Wildrose Alliance gain from PC (Swing: 26.69% from PC to WRA)

The only real winners are the Wildrose guys, and, surprisingly, not the Liberals. That signals that the backlash to Stelmach seems to come from his right, and not his left. This seems new in recent Albertan politics, and it could signal interesting things to come. However, before we start preparing for the Wildrose landslide in 2012, better to remember that it’s a by-election but also that Stelmach lost a by-election in Calgary-Elbow (Ralph Klein’s old seat) in 2007. In addition, Stelmach has always been hated in Calgary and Colley-Urquhart, an Alderman, also represented an unpopular municipal administration. However, such a thumping is unseen and especially coming from the right of the Conservatives in Alberta, so it could signal some interesting things for Alberta.

Also noteworthy that this riding is a bit unusual since it elected the only Conservative in the 1959 Social Credit landslide, as well as one of the two Liberals in 1967 and one of the three Liberals in 1967.