Tokyo 2009

The large Tokyo Metro Area (encompassing Tokyo and some of its suburbia) held prefectural elections for the 127-seat Metropolitan Assembly today. These Tokyo elections, because of the huge electorate (10 million today) are often seen as a very accurate test of popular support for the government before an imminent general election. The current government in Tokyo is formed by the same parties which form government nationally, the conservative-corrupt Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Buddhist New Komeito Party. The opposition in Tokyo is formed by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), a coalition of former Socialists (moderate), neoliberals, centrist, and LDP dissidents which have little in the way of actual ideology but rather united by an anti-LDP sentiment. Other opposition parties include the Communist Party (JCP), which is actually quite moderate and decent, and the Social Democratic Party of Japan (SDP) which is to the left of the JCP and is the piteous remains of the most radical wing of the old Japanese Socialist Party.

As I said before, these elections are accurate “opinion polls” for the general election. In 1993, the LDP lost its majority in Tokyo which signaled the loss of national power nationally that same year. In 2005, the LDP and New Komeito won a majority in Tokyo, which signaled the coalition’s majority win in the 2005 general election.

DPJ 54 seats (+20)
LDP 38 seats (-10)
New Komeito 23 seats (+1)
Communist Party 8 seats (-5)
Tokyo Seikatsusha 2 seats (-2)
Independents 2 seats (-1)
SDP 0 seats (-1)
LDP-New Komeito 61 seats (-9)

A major defeat for the LDP, but not a massive thumping (no DPJ majority on its own) but still a bag sign for the elections this year. In this election, all the opposition parties have 66 seats and a theoretical majority.

Mexico 2009

Firstly, I apologize for a big error in last day’s post: the Senate was not up for re-election, only the Chamber was. Anyways, these elections saw one of the largest victories for the formerly ruling PRI since the advent of real democracy in around 1988. The governing PAN had a bad night, but the very divided Mexican left (PRD) had an awful night.

PRI 36.68% winning 137 FPTP
PAN 27.98% winning 71 FPTP
PRD 12.20% winning 39 FPTP
Green 6.50%
PT 3.56%
PANAL 3.41%
Convergencia 2.36%
PSD 1.03%
PRI-PVEM candidates 0.41% winning 50 FPTP
PT-Convergencia candidates 0.24% winning 3 FPTP
Write-ins (non-registered parties) 0.18%
Blank and null 5.39%

The PR seats haven’t been allocated yet, but here is what I’ve been seeing as to final composition with the PR seats. I’m not sure if they have broken down the PRI-PVEM common candidates in the FPTP vote by the party of the winning candidate, because I’ve also seen 21 for the Greens and 237 for PRI. I think they counted all PRI-PVEM common candidates as PRI.

PRI 241 (+137) or 237 (+131)
PAN 147 (-59)
PRD 72 (-54)
Green 17 (-2) or 21 (+2)
PT 13 (-3)
PANAL 9 (nc)
Convergencia 6 (-10)
PSD 0 (-4)

PRI+Greenies (PVEM) have an absolute majority (258), but if the Greenies, which is nothing more than an object to buy, put their votes up for sale and the non-PRI parties have a good price for the PVEM, then an anti-PRI coalition would be possible (though unworkable and useless).

This election is comparable to the 2003 mid-terms or the 1997 mid-terms, both of which were won by the PRI. Though, as you can see, three years later, those victories turned into defeats (especially 2006).

In state elections; the PRI has held Campeche, Colima, Nuevo León (fending off a strong PAN challenge in one of PAN’s historical bases). It has gained Querétaro and San Luis Potosí. However, it seems that Sonora has bucked the trend by dumping the incumbent PRI in favour of PAN. Overall, +1 net for the PRI and -1 for PAN.

In the Federal District, the PRD has kept the absolute majority. Overall, the Lopezobradorista faction has emerged the strongest in the DF. For example, in Iztapalapa (discussed in the preview post), the PT candidate endorsed by Lopez Obrador won 31.2% against 22.1% for the PRD candidate (a member of the anti-Lopez faction).