Europe 2009: How it ends

I’ve analyzed as best I could the European results by member state using each national party with little references to Europarties and Eurogroups. Europe-wide results have been a little conflicting due to problems in classifying parties by group. I’ll use the European Parliament’s numbers for this analysis:

EPP 264 (including 1 Italian PD-SVP)
PES 161
ALDE 80 (excluding Cypriot DIKO)
Greens-EFA 53
UEN 35
EUL-NGL 32
IND/DEM 18
Others 93 (including British Tories [26], Italian PD [21], Czech ODS [9])

On these numbers, Independence and Democracy is dead – below the 25 seat threshold and it’s left with MEPs from only four countries (seven needed). In addition, 72% of the remaining ID members are UKIP MEPs. UEN could survive on these numbers because it has MEPs from seven countries. However, the Irish FF is included (it’s certain they’ll join ALDE) and the Polish Law and Justice (15 MEPs) is very likely to join the British Conservatives’ new neo-liberal Eurosceptic grouping – probably named European Conservatives – along with the Czech ODS. While they won’t have any trouble breaking the 25-seat threshold, they need MEPs from seven countries. I see the following parties joining:

Lijst Dedecker (Flanders): 1 MEP (counted in Others)
ODS (Czech Republic): 9 MEPs (Others)
Danish People’s Party (Denmark): 2 MEPs (UEN)
Lega Nord (Italy): 9 MEPs (UEN)
TB/LNNK (Latvia): 1 MEP (UEN)
Civic Union (Latvia): 2 MEPs (UEN)
Order and Justice (Lithuania): 2 MEPs (UEN)
CU-SGP (Netherlands): 2 MEPs (ID)
Law and Justice (Poland): 15 MEPs (UEN)
Conservatives and UUP (UK): 26 MEPs (Others)
9 Countries: 69 MEPs

EPP 264
PES 161
ALDE 80
EC-MER 69
Greens-EFA 53
EUL-NGL 32
IND/DEM 16 (2 LAOS, 1 Libertas, 13 UKIP)
UEN 4 (3 Irish FF and 1 Slovakian SNS)
Others 56 (including Italian PD [21])

Now, a few changes. The Euro Parl results count the Cypriot Democratic Party (1 MEP) as Others, though it has announced it would join PES. Ireland’s Fianna Fail will join ALDE. The Italian PD has 21 MEPs (one MEP, a member of the South Tyrolean SVP, will join EPP) in Others who will probably join the renamed PES group – Alliance of Socialists and Democrats for Europe (ASDE). The Latvian Harmony Centre will do likewise. I assume Joe Higgins (Socialist Party-Ireland) and Elie Hoarau (AOM-France) will join the EUL-NGL. Assuming they all do what I think they’ll do, here is the new arithmetic.

EPP 264
ASDE 184
ALDE 83
EC-MER 69
Greens-EFA 53
EUL-NGL 34
IND/DEM 16
UEN 1 (1 Slovakian SNS)
Others 31

The Others are mainly far-right and Indies. You’re left with the Vlaams Belang, the Bulgarian Ataka, Indrek Tarand from Estonia, the French FN, Lithuanian Poles, Hungarian and British Nazis, the Dutch Wilders PVV, Hans-Peter Martin and the FPÖ in Austria, the Romanian PRM, Finnish True Finns, the Pirates, the Spanish UPyD, one DUPer from Ulster, and ĽS-HZDS from Slovakia. I could then assume the one Lithuanian Pole to join the Greens-EFA, bringing the Greenies up to 54 and others to 29. It is unlikely the UPyD will join the Liberals since they’d be sitting with their mortal enemies, Catalan and Basque nationalists. Tarand  is being floated around as a possible member of the new EC-MER group as is ĽS-HZDS. If they do join, you have 28 Others and 71 EC-MER. In the end, the Non-Inscrits would the far-right, Martin’s 3 MEPs, UPyD, Pirates, True Finns, and also the UKIP, LAOS, and Philippe de Villiers from the defunct ID and the Slovakian SNS from UEN. The far-right is very unlikely to form a group due to lack of possible members. These could end up being the new parliamentary groups:

EPP 264
ASDE 184
ALDE 83
EC-MER 71
Greens-EFA 54
EUL-NGL 34
Others 45

Anyways, this is just speculation on my part and I could end up all wrong.

This mostly ends the Europe 2009 election season for my part. See you in 2014. Dear, that’s a long time.

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Posted on June 18, 2009, in EU Parliament. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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