Daily Archives: June 18, 2009

Europe 2009: How it ends

I’ve analyzed as best I could the European results by member state using each national party with little references to Europarties and Eurogroups. Europe-wide results have been a little conflicting due to problems in classifying parties by group. I’ll use the European Parliament’s numbers for this analysis:

EPP 264 (including 1 Italian PD-SVP)
PES 161
ALDE 80 (excluding Cypriot DIKO)
Greens-EFA 53
UEN 35
EUL-NGL 32
IND/DEM 18
Others 93 (including British Tories [26], Italian PD [21], Czech ODS [9])

On these numbers, Independence and Democracy is dead – below the 25 seat threshold and it’s left with MEPs from only four countries (seven needed). In addition, 72% of the remaining ID members are UKIP MEPs. UEN could survive on these numbers because it has MEPs from seven countries. However, the Irish FF is included (it’s certain they’ll join ALDE) and the Polish Law and Justice (15 MEPs) is very likely to join the British Conservatives’ new neo-liberal Eurosceptic grouping – probably named European Conservatives – along with the Czech ODS. While they won’t have any trouble breaking the 25-seat threshold, they need MEPs from seven countries. I see the following parties joining:

Lijst Dedecker (Flanders): 1 MEP (counted in Others)
ODS (Czech Republic): 9 MEPs (Others)
Danish People’s Party (Denmark): 2 MEPs (UEN)
Lega Nord (Italy): 9 MEPs (UEN)
TB/LNNK (Latvia): 1 MEP (UEN)
Civic Union (Latvia): 2 MEPs (UEN)
Order and Justice (Lithuania): 2 MEPs (UEN)
CU-SGP (Netherlands): 2 MEPs (ID)
Law and Justice (Poland): 15 MEPs (UEN)
Conservatives and UUP (UK): 26 MEPs (Others)
9 Countries: 69 MEPs

EPP 264
PES 161
ALDE 80
EC-MER 69
Greens-EFA 53
EUL-NGL 32
IND/DEM 16 (2 LAOS, 1 Libertas, 13 UKIP)
UEN 4 (3 Irish FF and 1 Slovakian SNS)
Others 56 (including Italian PD [21])

Now, a few changes. The Euro Parl results count the Cypriot Democratic Party (1 MEP) as Others, though it has announced it would join PES. Ireland’s Fianna Fail will join ALDE. The Italian PD has 21 MEPs (one MEP, a member of the South Tyrolean SVP, will join EPP) in Others who will probably join the renamed PES group – Alliance of Socialists and Democrats for Europe (ASDE). The Latvian Harmony Centre will do likewise. I assume Joe Higgins (Socialist Party-Ireland) and Elie Hoarau (AOM-France) will join the EUL-NGL. Assuming they all do what I think they’ll do, here is the new arithmetic.

EPP 264
ASDE 184
ALDE 83
EC-MER 69
Greens-EFA 53
EUL-NGL 34
IND/DEM 16
UEN 1 (1 Slovakian SNS)
Others 31

The Others are mainly far-right and Indies. You’re left with the Vlaams Belang, the Bulgarian Ataka, Indrek Tarand from Estonia, the French FN, Lithuanian Poles, Hungarian and British Nazis, the Dutch Wilders PVV, Hans-Peter Martin and the FPÖ in Austria, the Romanian PRM, Finnish True Finns, the Pirates, the Spanish UPyD, one DUPer from Ulster, and ĽS-HZDS from Slovakia. I could then assume the one Lithuanian Pole to join the Greens-EFA, bringing the Greenies up to 54 and others to 29. It is unlikely the UPyD will join the Liberals since they’d be sitting with their mortal enemies, Catalan and Basque nationalists. Tarand  is being floated around as a possible member of the new EC-MER group as is ĽS-HZDS. If they do join, you have 28 Others and 71 EC-MER. In the end, the Non-Inscrits would the far-right, Martin’s 3 MEPs, UPyD, Pirates, True Finns, and also the UKIP, LAOS, and Philippe de Villiers from the defunct ID and the Slovakian SNS from UEN. The far-right is very unlikely to form a group due to lack of possible members. These could end up being the new parliamentary groups:

EPP 264
ASDE 184
ALDE 83
EC-MER 71
Greens-EFA 54
EUL-NGL 34
Others 45

Anyways, this is just speculation on my part and I could end up all wrong.

This mostly ends the Europe 2009 election season for my part. See you in 2014. Dear, that’s a long time.

Iran and Lebanon 2009

Lebanon

Lebanon voted on June 7 to renew its 128-seat unicameral Parliament. Under the terms of the Doha Agreement, Maronite Christians have 34 seats, Shi’a Muslims and Sunni Muslims have 27 each, Greek Orthodox have 14, Druzes have 8, Greek Catholics also have 8, Armenian Orthodox have 5, Alawites have 2, Protestants have one and “other Christians” have 2.

The Parliament has been classified in two blocs – the March 14 Alliance composed of pro-Western followers of the late Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri (led by his son, Saad Hariri) and most Christian parties and, on the other hand, the March 8 Alliance composed of pro-Syrian parties including most notably the Hezbollah Islamist party.

According to Naharnet, the March 14 Alliance has 68 MPs, March 8 has 57 MPs, and there are 3 Independents. The Future Bloc led by Saad Hariri has 28 MPs, the Hezbollah’s Christian ally Reform and Change Bloc has 27 MPs. The Hezbollah-led Resistance Bloc has 11 MPs. The Christian March 14 members, the Lebanese Forces and the Phalangists (Kataeb Party) have 5 MPs each.

Iran

Iran’s presidential election has obviously been a lot in the news lately, though most Western media coverage has been poor at best and the best source of information probably remains student protestors on Twitter and other sites like those. Nick Silver’s American 538.com blog has also done a very good job at covering the electoral statistical part of this, and possibly at proving how this election has been rigged by Ahmadinejad’s supporters. My job has mostly been done for me, so I will only repost the supposed results of this “election”.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (Conservative) 62.23%
Mir-Hossein Mousavi (Reformist) 33.75%
Moshen Rezaee (Conservative) 1.73%
Mehdi Karroubi (Reformist) 0.85%

And also a supposed “map” of this “election”.

Iran 2009

New Zealand: Mount Albert by-election 2009

A by-election in the New Zealand electorate of Mount Albert was held on June 13. The seat was vacated by former Labour Prime Minister Helen Clark, who resigned following her nomination to head the UNDP. The Mount Albert electorate is based around the neighbourhoods of western and central Auckland City. It includes the suburbs of Point Chevalier, Kingsland, Avondale, Waterview, as well as the eponymous Mount Albert. It has been held by Labour since its creation in 1946; Helen Clark was its representative from 1981 until 2009 and enjoyed a large majority in Mt Albert. Clark’s Labour government was defeated in the 2008 election and John Key of the centre-right National Party is now Prime Minister, in a coalition including the libertarian ACT, the centrist United Future and the Māori Party.

David Shearer (Labour) 63.10% (+3.81%)
Melissa Lee (National) 17.14% (-11.7%)
Russell Norman (Green) 12.09% (+6.15%)
John Boscawen (ACT) 4.72% (+2.35%)
None of the other 11 candidates broke 1%

Despite the apperances, this isn’t really a big deal for the governing Nationals. They knew that they had no chance and gave up on this by-election. The Key government has good poll ratings.

Europe 2009: French Results and Analysis

This is the final posts on country-by-country overviews of the European election results. We end with France, where I’m able lots more analysis. We’ll start out with results:

UMP 27.87% (+11.23%) winning 29 seats (+12)
PS 16.48% (-12.42%) winning 14 seats (-17)
Europe Ecologie – The Greens 16.28% (+8.87%) winning 14 seats (+8)
MoDem 8.45% (-4.08%) winning 6 seats (-5)
Left Front – Alliance of the Overseas 6.47% (+0.59%) winning 5 seats (+2)
FN 6.34% (-3.47%) winning 3 seats (-4)
NPA 4.88% (+2.32%)
Libertas 4.8% (-3.6%) winning 1 seat (-2)
Independent Ecological Alliance 3.63% (+1.72%)

t/o: 40.65% (-2.14%)

EU Parliament 2009 %

UMP in blue, PS in red, Greens-EE in green, Left Front in the last red

Results by Euro Constituency (all those breaking 5% and the closest to 5%)

Nord-Ouest: UMP 24.22% (4), PS 18.1% (2), Greens 12.1% (1), FN 10.18% (1), MD 8.67% (1), Left 6.84% (1), NPA 5.8%, Libertas 4.26%
Ouest: UMP 27.16% (3), PS 17.29% (2), Greens 16.65% (2), Libertas 10.27% (1), MD 8.48% (1), NPA 5.13%, Left 4.58%
Est: UMP 29.20% (4), PS 17.24% (2), Greens 14.28% (1), MD 9.44% (1), FN 7.57% (1), NPA 5.64%, AEI 4.26%
Sud-Ouest: UMP 26.89% (4), PS 17.72% (2), Greens 15.83% (2), MD 8.61% (1), Left 8.16% (1), FN 5.94%, NPA 5.62%, AEI 4.24%
Sud-Est: UMP 29.34% (4), Greens 18.27% (3), PS 14.49% (2), FN 8.49% (1), MD 7.37% (1), Left 5.9% (1), NPA 4.33%
Massif Central-Centre: UMP 28.51% (3), PS 17.79% (1), Greens 13.58% (1), MD 8.15%, Left 8.06%, NPA 5.45%, FN 5.12%, Libertas 4.9%
Ile-de-France: UMP 29.6% (5), Greens 20.86% (4), PS 13.58% (2), MD 8.52% (1), Left 6.32% (1), FN 4.40%
Outre Mer: UMP 29.69% (1), Left-AOM 21.02% (1), PS 20.27% (1), Greens 16.25%, MD 9.29%, Libertas 2.88%

The results are pleasing for mainly two parties. Firstly, the UMP, a governing party winning, despite it being a weak victory, in an economic crisis in France is undeniably a remarkable feat. It is the first time since the UDF’s victory in 1979 that the presidential party has won the European elections. However, the most remarkable result of the night is that of the Greens and their Europe Écologie outfit. Their victory comes with the destruction of the Socialist Party, which finds itself in the same situation as it was between 1992 and 1995. The PS has been divided by the Reims Congress in November 2008, they have failed to offer any sort of platform since then, and their campaign has been hypocritical and very poor. The Green’s competition came also from Bayrou’s MoDem, though Bayrou destroyed his chances by calling Daniel Cohn-Bendit a pedophile in a TV debate. There are also socio-economic causes for the Greenies surprise wins, which I’ll explain later.

EUParliament2009-UMP

The UMP has won, that’s undeniable. However, this is quite a Pyrrhic victory for them. Their 28% is below Sarkozy’s 31% in April 2007, but Sarkozy had atleast Le Pen’s 10.4% as a vote reserve for the runoff then. Today, the UMP is totally isolated. The closest to them is Philippe de Villiers’ Libertas and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan’s DLR, but that’s statistically irrelevant. The regional elections in 2010, while the UMP will certainly gain (it would be quasi-impossible to fall lower than their disastrous 2004 levels), the new system in use since 2004 is a classic two-round system. Winning 28% won’t suffice to cry victory anymore. The UMP has unarguably moved farther east/southeast, though to my surprise, the UMP’s gains in the old moderate right departments (Lozère, Aveyron, Val-de-Loire region) have been about the same as the UMP’s gains in the East. Sarkozy’s gains with manual workers in 2007 have been quasi-eliminated, with the biggest drops recorded in those hard hit by the recession (Oise, Moselle, Pas-de-Calais). The UMP seems to have lost a few Le Pen voters who have returned to the FN fold (though these loses seem limited to the North West and Alpes-Maritimes). The map also shows a relatively strong Baudis effect in the South West, though it’s much weaker than the similar effect in 1994. The UMP’s top candidates in the South West but also Massif-Centre have proved to be better candidates than Sarkozy and the important improvements on Sarko’s performance have come in those departments of Chiraquie/Pompidolie and “Baudisie”. Maine-et-Loire’s improvement is due to a strong favourite son effect for the top candidate, the President of the Maine-et-Loire CG, Christophe Béchu, which has been relatively confined to his department though Béchu was undoubtedly a fine candidate for the Ouest as a whole. However, there has been a Royal effect in Poitou-Charentes, with the UMP’s gains more limited in that region and the PS (the list was led by a local ally of Royal) performing above average.

EUParliament2009-PS

The PS has lost because it lost a key category, middle-class generally well-off educated urban voters, to the Greens. The Greater Paris region is a perfect example. Also look at the poor showings in the Rhone (Lyon), Bouches-du-Rhone (Marseille), Isere (Grenoble – one of the most Green cities in France), Ille-et-Vilaine (Rennes), Gironde (Bordeaux), Bas-Rhin (Strasbourg), Herault (Montpellier – another quite Green city). Loire-Atlantique is probably due to Saint-Nazaire’s industrial region since the well-off areas voted Green. Their strongest departments are more rural or industrialized (lower-class blue collar) than average (where Greenies don’t poll well). Also, losing Nièvre (Mitterrand’s home turf, where the PS has maitained its dominance even without its founder) is a sign of an extremely bad election. They lost it in the 1992 regionals, 1993 legislatives, 1994 Euros.

EUParliament2009-Greensd

A mix old Greenie strongholds in Savoie, Brittany, the Greater Grenoble-Lyon area, and Alsace; and recent success in urban areas (on the back of the centre-leftist weakly Socialist middle-class switching from PS to Greenies, a la 1992 and 1993). The seemingly ‘poor’ result in Alsace is due to Waechter’s list, which got 5.85% in Bas-Rhin and 7% in Haut-Rhin. When comparing the sum of EE+AEI in Alsace, you’re very much above the Greenies’ 1989 result. You also have an important favourite son effect for the various top candidates. Aveyron for Bove, Drome for Rivasi (she represented Valence between 1997 and 2002), Guadeloupe for Durimel. The Green success in Corse is due to the fact that a member of the Corsican PNC (Francois Alfonsi, now MEP) was second on Rivasi’s list. The Greenies almost won Corse-du-Sud, in fact. As expected, the industrial areas of the North and East and the left-wing rural areas of the Massif-Central are not fertile land for the Greenies. Neither are areas where the CPNT is powerful (Somme, Manche, Gironde’s result is too influenced by Bordeaux and its agglomeration for it to come out). The Greenies have regained strength lost in 2004 in Ile-de-France. They probably took most of CAP21’s vote in the constituency in 2004 in addition to the middle-class urban block described above (especially important in Ile-de-France, much more so than a joke like CAP21).

To prove the urban vote theory, here are some staggering numbers of major cities:

Paris: UMP 29.97, Greens 27.46, PS 14.69, MoDem 8.31, Left 5.05
Lyon: UMP 30.84, Greens 23.7, PS 15.51, MD 8.74
Rennes: Greens 27.41, UMP 21.87, PS 19.81, MD 8.54, Left 6.04
Montpellier: UMP 24.5, Greens 23.16, PS 17.1, Left 7.64, MD 7.61, FN 5.64, NPA 5.54
Mulhouse: UMP 26.35, Greens 18.05, PS 16.22, FN 10, MD 8.64
Bordeaux: UMP 31.54, Greens 22.34, PS 15, MD 9.25, Left 5.99
Marseille: UMP 27.85, Greens 16.33, PS 15.89, FN 11.6, Left 7.84, MD 6.17
Grenoble: Greens 29.04, UMP 21.22, PS 19.09, MD 7.52, Left 6.87
Toulouse: UMP 30.07, Greens 22.05, PS 16.96, Left 7.92, MD 7.45, NPA 5.17
Nantes: UMP 25.78, Greens 25.54, PS 17.95, MD 8.18, Libertas 5.27
Neuilly: UMP 65.17, Greens 11.83, MD 5.95
Versailles: UMP 43.41, Greens 15.4, MD 9.67, Libertas 8.05, PS 7.84
Le Havre: UMP 21.84, Greens 17.66, PS 12.94, PCF 10.62, FN 8.26, NPA 5.6
Annecy: UMP 31.55, Greens 23.19, PS 12.69, MD 9.06, FN 5.67
Strasbourg: UMP 27.84, PS 23.36, Greens 21, MD 9.87, FN 5.06

EUParliament2009-MoDem

The MoDem’s electorate is very loose and has shifting loyalties (goes well with its leader, I suppose). Along with the PS, they lost the urban vote I described above, to the Greenies. Unsurprising and a very uniform map. The remnants of the UDF map plus a surprisingly strong vote for Lepage in Normandie (she was councillor of a town in the Calvados), a favourite son vote for Bruno Joncour in Cotes-d’Armor (he’s the Mayor and was second on the list). Tarn is a bit weird, but the MoDem’s number 2 on the Sud Ouest list is Mayor of a city there (Puylaurens) and an incumbent MEP (defeated now). Results in the Greater Paris, Greater Lyon (the UDF was rather strong here) and Centre are deceiving. The MoDem’s map is shifting away from the UDF map more to a personal vote map, especially with the MoDem’s continued high performances in Bayrou’s home turn, Pyrenées-Atlantiques.

EUParliament2009-FdG

Some strong showings in the old PCF lands, especially the Red Rural areas (Limousin, Allier) plus the Gard (old PCF stronghold), Cher (ditto, but less so). The PCF still dominates the far-left share of the workers’ vote, unsurprisingly little NPA breakthrough there. They’re far stronger than Besancenot’s bunch in the NPDC region. I don’t see what the Left Party/Mélenchon adds. I thought the Ariège and Hautes-Pyrenées at first, but there’s a sizeable PCF vote there, though this year’s showing is quite high. The only interesting “additions” outside of the PCF realm are maybe the Landes (Emmanuelli, a member of the PS’ hard left which has not joined the PG). Even Indre-et-Loire and… Lozère have some Communist strenght. In the former, in Saint-Pierre-des-Corps (a poor industrial Tours suburb) and in the Red Cévennes in the latter.

EUParliament2009-FN

The strong FN vote is not returning strongly in Alsace or Lorraine. It seems more of a return to a 1986-style map (Pieds-Noir territory plus some strength out East) plus Nord Ouest (I assume a fair share of FN voters who voted for Sarkozy in 2007 have returned due to the recession hitting harder there than elsewhere). The FN is obviously dead out West, but that isn’t news. However, I would note that the FN has done best where its old figures were on top – Marine Le Pen did quite well in the Nord Ouest and JMLP in the Sud Est. In fact, the differences between the Orne (in Marine’s constituency) and an old FN stronghold like Eure-et-Loir (Massif-Centre) are interesting.

EUParliament2009-NPA

Unsurprising far-left map, but there’s a number of interesting intricacies in this map. Firstly, the decline of the old “Maoist”/young crazy revolutionary vote in the Greater Paris which probably went Green. The NPA’s share of the vote in Ile-de-France is very bad for them. I remember reading somewhere that the NPA was becoming more working class and less young revolutionary idiot than the LCR was. I would note the poor results in the NPDC, proof if there is of the NPA not breaking through with blue collar workers, though the results in industrial Lorraine seem pretty solid. As always, a fair share of the modern far-left vote used to vote PCF in the ’80’s and early ’90’s and have started to vote for Trots (Laguiller then Besancenot) since 2002 if not before. Reflected on the map. Overall, not very promising at all. You have them losing votes in the far-left’s traditional Nordistes strongholds and also loosing the young (and well-off, o/c) revolutionary vote in urban areas. A very unstructured map, though the NPA doesn’t give me the impression that elections are a big thing for them.

EUParliament2009-Libertas

Traditional de Villiers map for the Ouest with his results declining the father out you get from Montaigu. The CPNT effect has been quite minimal, visible only in the Somme, Manche. A lot of the Hunters vote went FN or UMP, probably the latter more than the former. Marie-Claude Bompard was second on Patrick Louis’ list and could explain the Vaucluse result. The Est results probably also based on favourite sons.

Random statistics for other interesting lists:

The FN dissident (the We Hate Marine Le Pen group) did very poorly. Carl Lang got 1.52% in the North West and Jean-Claude Martinez got 0.92% in the South West. A list supported by Carl Lang’s Party of France got 1.88%. Anti-Zionist got 1.3% in Ile-de-France (2.83% in the 93). Parti Breton: 2.36% in Bretagne (5 departments), EAJ: 1.98% in the Pyrenees-Atlantiques, Batasuna: 2.70% in the Pyrenees-Atlantiques. The old CNIP got 0.07% nationally, definitely a good start for a great future! Newropeans got 0.01% nationally, beaten by the Stalinists (0.02%) and Royalists (0.02% also). The biggest losers are some list called Programme contre la précarité et le sexisme, winning a great 24 votes nationally.