South Africa 2009: Preliminary

It seems that South Africa has finished counting and preliminary final results seem to be out. Turnout is 76%, roughly equal to 2004 but lower than in 1999 or 1994.

ANC 65.90% (-3.79%)
DA 16.66% (+4.29%)
COPE 7.42% (+7.42%)
IFP 4.55% (-2.42%)
Independent Democrats 0.92% (-0.78%)
UDM 0.85% (-1.43%)
Freedom Front+ 0.83% (-0.06%)
ACDP 0.81% (-0.79%)
UCDP 0.37% (-0.38%)
Pan-Africanist Congress (PAC) 0.27% (-0.46%)
Minority Front (MF) 0.25% (-0.10%)
Azanian People’s Organization (AZAPO) 0.22% (-0.03%)
African People’s Congress (APC) 0.20% (+0.20%)

And here is a revised (and improved) seat allocation prediction:

ANC 264 (-15)
DA 67 (+17)
COPE 30 (+30)
IFP 18 (-10)
ID 4 (-3)
UDM 4 (-5)
VF+ 4 (±0)
ACDP 3 (-4)
UCDP 2 (-1)
PAC 1 (-2)
MF 1 (-1)
AZAPO 1 (±0)
APC 1 (+1)
National 0 (-7)

Graph of Seat Estimate

Map of South African Provinces

National results by province (parties over 1% only)

W Cape: DA 48.78 (+21.86), ANC 32.86 (-13.42), COPE 9.06 (+9.06), ID 4.49 (-3.48), ACDP 1.62 (-2.16)
N Cape: ANC 61.10 (-7.65), COPE 15.94 (+15.94), DA 13.08 (+1.47), ID 4.72 (-1.89), VF+ 1.20 (-0.29), UCDP 1.10 (+0.79)
E Cape: ANC 69.70 (-9.61), COPE 13.31 (+13.31), DA 9.97 (+2.72), UDM 3.95 (-4.96)
KwaZulu-Natal: ANC 63.97 (+16.5), IFP 20.52 (-14.35), DA 10.33 (+0.33), COPE 1.55 (+1.55), MF 1.10 (-0.76)
Free State: ANC 71.90 (-10.15), DA 12.10 (+3.23), COPE 11.11 (+11.11), VF+ 1.61 (-0.46)
Northwest: ANC 73.84 (-7.99), DA 8.70 (+3.23), COPE 8.43 (+8.43), UCDP 3.94 (-2.59), VF+ 1.44 (+0.3)
Gauteng: ANC 64.76 (-3.98), DA 21.27 (+0.94), COPE 7.78 (+7.78), IFP 1.48 (-1.16), VF+ 1.38 (+0.18)
Mpumalanga: ANC 85.81 (-0.53), DA 7.60 (+0.43), COPE 2.89 (+2.89)
Limpopo: ANC 85.27 (-4.45), COPE 7.21 (+7.21), DA 3.71 (-0.10)

Results in the largest cities, according to the 2001 census.

Johannesburg (GA): ANC 63.15, DA 20.84, COPE 9.49, IFP 2.33
Durban (KZN): ANC 67.52, DA 18.04, IFP 6.81, COPE 2.57, MF 2.5
Cape Town (WC): DA 50.92, ANC 32.76, COPE 8.69, ID 2.76, ACDP 1.74
East Rand (GA): ANC 67.52, DA 20.45, COPE 6.22, IFP 1.86
Pretoria (GA): ANC 61.07, DA 24.90, COPE 7.75, VF+ 2.9, ACDP 1.11
Port Elizabeth (EC): ANC 50.14, DA 28.17, COPE 17.02, ID 1.43
East London (EC): ANC 67.67, COPE 16.54, DA 11.28, ACDP 1.11, UDM 1.01
Vereeniging (GA): ANC 75.07, DA 13.58, COPE 7.22
Bloemfontein (FS): ANC 64.72, DA 16.61, COPE 13.34, VF+ 2.00
Thohoyandou (Limpopo): ANC 88.99, COPE 7.10, DA 1.04

The ANC gains in KwaZulu-Natal do not show a clear picture nationally, though even there the ANC loses ground. Outside of KZN, the ANC lost around 7.2% of its 2004 vote. If the estimate for seats holds, the ANC will have lost its two-thirds majority by a whisker, with only two seats less than the two-thirds majority, which allows the ANC to amend the Constitution freely.

The results in provincial legislatures have been generally similar to the national results. In Western Cape, the DA has ended up over 50% (51.46%) unlike in the national election, giving it a majority in the legislature. Though the DA will probably form the opposition coalition I mentioned in my last post with COPE, Independent Democrats, and maybe the Christian right and VF+. In all other provinces, the ANC has over 60% of the seats and there will be no changes there, unsurprisingly. ANC (obviously), DA and COPE are represented in all parliaments (COPE barely got in in KZN), while the other parties with seats in legislatures are pratically regional parties.

Updated with new seat numbers (ANC -1, DA +1)

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Posted on April 25, 2009, in South Africa. Bookmark the permalink. 1 Comment.

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