Daily Archives: April 5, 2009

Turkey Locals 2009

Turkey voted in local elections for all levels of local governance on March 29. The last local elections had been held in 2004. Observers expected the (religious) liberal-conservative AKP of Prime Minister Erdoğan to win a large victory, maybe even rivaling the AKP’s 47% in the 2007 general election. However, the reverse took place. The AKP won 38.99%, much lower than its 2007 GE result. The Kemalist secular-nationalist opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) obtained a pleasing 23.23%. The Turkish far-right Nationalist Movement (MHP) won 16.13%, also a pleasing result. The Kurdish DTP won 5.41%, an excellent result. The outright Islamist Felicity Party (SP) won 5.18%, also a good result. Not so good for the Democratic Party (DP), a right-wing secular party whose name alludes to the main opponent of the CHP in the ’40’s and ’50’s. The DP won 3.71% after winning 5.41% in 2007. The Democratic Left (DSP), which ran with the CHP in 2007, won 2.74%. The awful nationalist BBP won 2.22%.

The AKP has won 45 provinces, against 13 for the CHP, 10 for the MHP, 8 for the Kurdish DTP, 2 for the DSP, 1 Democratic, 1 Indie (really, Islamist), and 1 BBP. The AKP held on to provinces that include Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city and Ankara, the capital. However, the west coast city of İzmir, a traditional CHP stronghold, was retained by the CHP in a landslide. The MHP very narrowly gained Adana, Turkey’s 4th largest city, from the AKP. In the Kurdish provinces, the AKP took a massive beating. In the Kurdish capital of Diyarbakir, the DTP took 65%. The AKP also lost Van, in Kurdistan, by a landslide.

Here is a map of the said election.

turkey-2009

Queensland 2009

I guess I can finish up Queensland 2009 now. Counting in Australia always tends to take quite some time to be complete. With 90.8% counted, these be the results.

Labor 42.28% (-4.64%) winning 51 seats (-8)
Liberal National 41.57% (+3.65%) winning 34 seats (+9)
The Greens 8.37% (+0.37%) winning 0 seats (-1)
Daylight Savings Party 0.94% (new) winning 0 seats (new)
Family First 0.82% (-1.07%) winning 0 seats (±0)
One Nation 0.38% (-0.22%) winning 0 seats (-1)
Indies 5.65% (+0.97%) winning 4 seats (±0)

LNP gains from Labor

Aspley: 54.5% PP. Traditionally Liberal northern Brisbane seat.
Burdekin: 53.1%. Notionally Labor, but held by an LNP incumbent.
Clayfield: 55.8%. City of Brisbane (north). Notionally Labor, but held by an LNP incumbent.
Cleveland: 50.3%. Eastern Brisbane.
Coomera: 52%. Gold Coast. A large swing to the LNP (10.3%).
Gaven: 50.7%. Gold Coast hinterlands.
Hervey Bay: 55.3%. Uhm. Let’s see now. Hervey Bay!
Indooroopilly: 55.9%. Wealthy western Brisbane. Held by Ronan Lee, the ALP > Greenies MP.  Ronan Lee did not outpoll Labor on first prefs.
Mirani: 50.6%. Notionally Labor, held by an LNP incumbent.
Mudgeeraba: 53.9%. Gold Coast.
Redlands: 50.1%. Eastern Brisbane

And now, a map.

queensland-2009

queensland-2009-brisbane

The LNP dominates rural areas, the old strongholds of the National Party. Only exception to that is Cook in the far north and Mount Isa. I believe Mount Isa has historically been a left-wining mining area. The LNP, however, is much weaker in Brisbane. It still has lots of work to do in urban areas, Brisbane in particular, before it wants to re-gain power in Queensland.

I’m a bit tired-busy now, so I’ll stop short my analysis. I will redirect you the Tally Room, which probably does a better job than I do at analysing all the minute details of this election. And Moldova will come soon!

On a final note regarding my prediction, which was ALP 43, LNP 42, Ind 4, I have calculated to be 91.01% correct. That’s quite good considering how this is my first time doing this for Australia!

Slovakia 2009: Runoff

The runoff of the Slovakian presidential election was held yesterday. The runoff opposed the incumbent, Ivan Gašparovič, supported a majority of the current left-wing/nationalist government, to the moderate centre-right and Hungarian opposition, represented by Iveta Radičová.

The results are as follows:

Ivan Gašparovič (HZD-Smer-SNS) 55.53%
Iveta Radičová (SDKÚ-DS-MKP-KDH) 44.47%

slovakia-2009-2

Slovakia is quite polarized. Radičová ended up winning all counties won by the Hungarian Coalition (MKP) in 2006, and a huge majority of the counties she won were won by the MKP in 2006. Her voter base is therefore largely Hungarian, but she is also strong in the capital, Bratislava and other urban areas. Gašparovič is quite strong in rural inner Slovakia, and he effectively eaten up what remains of Mečiar’s 2004 base. He got some of his biggest victories in Mečiar’s strongest areas. On the other hand, he lost some of the counties (such as the Hungarian ones and Bratislava, for example) he won in 2004 purely because he was the least-worst or least-fascist candidate then. Which is probably not true today.

Although this is a ceremonial position, the President has veto power, and Gašparovič’s victory is therefore good news for the Robert Fico government and ensures that Fico will finish his term with a friendly President in office. Not that  Gašparovič’s is all that surprising. It was quite inevitable. For starters, Gašparovič is personally popular for his non-confrontational style in office (even though Gašparovič’s personal party, the HZD, continues to poll crumbs). Second, Fico’s government and especially Smer is very popular and is assured, unless there’s something drastic, of a huge victory in the next election which could potentially allow Fico and Smer to tell their fascist junion coalition partners to go screw themselves. Fico (and Smer)’s support of Gašparovič helped him, in addition to his personal popularity. A Radičová victory was, for those reasons, very unlikely.