Daily Archives: March 21, 2009

Queensland 2009: 70% counted

Now that one was a shocker. With 70% of the votes counted, the Labor Party has won a comfortable majority for the fifth time in a row, despite suffering a largeish swing against them. The Liberal National Party has failed to make any large gains, and its leader, Lawrence Springborg has stepped down.

With approximately 70% counted, or 1700 out of 2418 booths, here are the rough stats. Seats are the current ABC predictions, and will probably change.

Labor 42.69% (-4.23%) winning 53 seats (-5)
Liberal National 41.07% (+3.15%) winning 25 seats (+7)
The Greens 8.23% (+0.24%) winning 0 seats (-1)
Daylight Savings Party 1.01% (new) winning 0 seats (new)
Family First 0.81% (-1.08%) winning 0 seats (±0)
One Nation 0.54% (-0.06%) winning 0 seats (-1)
Indies 5.65% (+0.97%) winning 4 seats (±0)

ABC has four seats “in doubt”, or TCTC. These are:

Chatsworth: ALP lead (50.51%). 73.3% counted. Southern Brisbane.
Cleveland: LNP lead (50.05%). 71.2% counted. Eastern Brisbane.
Gaven: ALP lead (50.53%). 69.1% counted. Gold Coast hinterlands.
Redlands: LNP lead (50.12%). 70.6% counted. Eastern Brisbane.

I also classify the LNP-held seat but notionally Labor seat of Mirani as marginal: the ALP leads with 50.15% with 68.1% reporting.

[Current, as of 16:51] LNP gains from Labor (including TCTC)

Aspley: 53.6% PP. Traditionally Liberal northern Brisbane seat.
Burdekin: 52.5%. Notionally Labor, but held by an LNP incumbent.
Clayfield: 56.1%. City of Brisbane (north). Notionally Labor, but held by an LNP incumbent.
Cleveland: see above
Coomera: 51.8%. Gold Coast. A large swing to the LNP (10.5%)
Hervey Bay: 55.3%.
Indooroopilly: 55.7%. Wealthy western Brisbane. Held by Ronan Lee, the ALP > Greenies MP. It seems like Ronan Lee won’t outpoll Labor on first prefs.
Mudgeeraba: 53.7%. Gold Coast.
Redlands: see above

[Current, as of 16:58] ALP gains from LNP (including TCTC)

Mirani: see above

Those other interesting races. In Condamine, it looks like the official LNP candidate will defeat the LNPdiss/Ind candidate by a large margin, it’s 61.4% for Hopper (LNP) right now on 2PP. No ALP gain in Beaudesert after all, but Pauline Hanson has performed wellish, with around 21.7%, but far behind the LNP and slightly behind Labor. Exhausted ballots seem very high there after preferences. Hanson voters probably just marked her box, like she told them to do. Also, it seems One Neuron has lost its last MP. Dalrymple is 52.3% LNP on 2PP against One Nation.

Maps and stuff when they’re done counting.