Euskadi and Galicia 2009

Final, or at least very close to final results in both Euskadi (Basque Country, if thee English-firster prefers) and Galicia have come in.

In Galicia, the PP has defied polls and exit polls and has won back the state with an overall majority in the legislature. Corrected results after overseas ballots tallied:

PP 46.68% (+1.66%) winning 38 seats (+1)
PSdeG-PSOE 31.02% (-2.05%) winning 25 seats (±0)
BNG 16.01% (-2.56%) winning 12 seats (-1)
UPyD 1.41% (+1.41%) winning 0 seats (±0)

Turnout was 70.46%, up from 68.1% in 2005. The PP has won also won a plurality of the votes in all provinces. Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the PPdeG’s leader, will become President of Galicia, ending the PSOE-BNG coalition in power since 2005.

Now for Euskadi.

EAJ-PNV 38.56% (-0.11%) winning 30 seats (+8 on EAJ 2005)
PSE-EE 30.71% (+8.03%) winning 24 seats (+6)
PP 14.09% (-3.31%) winning 13 seats (-2)
Aralar 6.05% (+3.72%) winning 4 seats (+3)
EA 3.68% winning 2 seats (-5 on EA 2005)
EB-B 3.51% (-1.86%) winning 1 seat (-2)
UPyD 2.14% winning 1 seat (+1)

Invalid votes are calculated at 8.84%, and around 97% of those (8.63%) are estimated to be D3M votes. If they were valid, D3M would have won approximately 7 seats (-2 on EHAK 2005).

The EAJ-PNV has won the two northern provinces, Gipuzkoa/Guipúzcoa and Bizkaia/Viscaya, while the PSE-EE has won Araba/Álava, the southern province of Euskadi and the “least Basque” one. The PP and UPyD got their best results, by far, in Araba/Álava. In Gipuzkoa/Guipúzcoa, the D3M took around 13%. Aralar and EA also got their best results there, Aralar even broke 10%. In Bizkaia/Viscaya, which holds half of the Basque population, the EAJ broke 40%.

The current coalition (EAJ, EA, EB-B) and Aralar have won approximately 52% but do not have a majority of seats (more on this later on in this post). They have 37 seats (49%), one short of a majority. All anti-nationalist parties put together have around 48% of the votes but 51% of the seats, or 38. Thus, as you can imagine, the vote may be over, but the coalition stuff has just begun. A few ideas to throw out there, excluding the silly ones (like EAJ-PP “We both rabidly hate hate each other and would like to kill each other now” coalition). As mentioned before, a nationalist+EB-B coalition has 37 (-1 of majority) and a grand anti-nationalist coalition (PSE, PP, and UPyD) has 38 seats. However, the PSOE and PP are two politically opposite parties and it’s far from certain they’d work together. On top of that, the PSE-EE is not rabidly anti-nationalist as the PP or UPyD are. They’re anti-independence yes, but not anti-autonomy or whatever. I’d rule out a PSE-PP-UPyD coalition, so best not listen to the media meatheads who discuss it. Another coalition with a majority is a grand coalition between EAJ and PSE (ala Wales, which has a Labour-Plaid coalition) with 54 seats. Apart from that, it’s pretty much empty. EB-B would eat their right arm before working with the PP anywhere, UPyD would probably eat their left arm before working with the nats, and so forth.

Euskadi’s regional legislature has 75 seats, with each province having 25 seats. However, the provinces are far from equal in population. Bizkaia holds 53.2% of the Basque population alone, Gipuzkoa holds 32.5%, and Araba a mere 14.4%. I decided to simulate the same results (d’Hondt 3%) on a purely proportional allocation of seats by province: Bizkaia would have 40 seats, Gipuzkoa 24, and Araba 11.

Araba (11 seats)

EAJ-PNV 4
PSE-EE 4
PP 3

Gipuzkoa (24 seats)

EAJ-PNV 10
PSE-EE 8
PP 2
Aralar 2
EA 1
EB-B 1

Araba (40 seats)

EAJ-PNV 19
PSE-EE 13
PP 6
Aralar 1
EB-B 1

Which gives us a new legislature (with change on actual allocation)

EAJ-PNV 33 (+3)
PSE-EE 25 (+1)
PP 11 (-2)
Aralar 3 (-1)
EA 1 (-1)
EB-B 2 (+1)
UPyD 0 (-1)

Now, the nats+EB-B have 39 seats and a majority. Lastly, allocating all 75 seats from a region-only constituency (and not provinces) gives us EAJ 31 (+1), PSE 25 (+1), PP 11 (-2), Aralar 4, EA 2, EB-B (+1), UPyD 0 (-1). 5% regional threshold gives EAJ 32 (+2), PSE 26 (+2), PP 12 (-1), Aralar 5 (+1). Anyways, that’s all for now. Maybe some maps and electoral analysis later on.

Until then, eskerriak asko, gau on edo egun on!

That’s Basque for thank you, good evening or good morning.