Daily Archives: January 19, 2009
The full results of the Hessian Landtag elections held today are now out. The CDU-FDP has won a majority of seats, and CDU incumbent Minister-President Roland Koch will keep his seat.
CDU 37.2 (+0.4) winning 46 seats (+4)
SPD 23.7 (-13.0) winning 29 seats (-13)
FDP 16.2 (+6.8) winning 20 seats (+9)
Greens 13.7 (+6.2) winning 17 seats (+8)
Left 5.4 (+0.3) winning 6 seats (+0)
Others 3.8 (-0.7)
Turnout 61.0 (-3.3)
CDU-FDP 53.4% winning 66 seats
The SPD won nine out of the 55 constituency seats. Since the CDU won 46 constituencies, the smallest total that gives them 46 is used. This is why there are now 118 seats, majority is thus 60.
The 3.8% others broke down 0.6% (-0.4) for the Republicans, 1.6% (+0.7) for Freie Wahler (same grouping as the one which won seats in Bavaria last year), 0.9% for the neo-Nazis, 0.5% (+0.3) for the Pirate Party, and 0.2% (+0.2) for the LaRouchites. Seven parties that ran in 2008, taking 1.4%, did not run this time.
The CDU didn’t do as well as some polls might have led one to suspect they would. The main reason is Koch’s unpopularity. Many voters voted FDP because they didn’t like Koch but didn’t like the left either (according to the Infratest-dimap exit poll, 66% of FDP voters voted that way out of disapproval for Koch). The Greens, which they didn’t see their vote squeezed by the SPD like in 2008, benefited from the SPD’s unpopularity and took a record high result. According to exit polls, Koch would have won a direct vote for Minister-President 47-38 against Schäfer-Gümbel.
Below are two maps. The first one shows the constituency vote results and the secondvote (list vote) results. The second map show the results of the 5 biggies in the list vote.
SPD incumbents in the direct vote fared much better than the SPD list, and a few held on by narrow margins. However, the SPD’s collapse was quasi-universal. In the city of Kassel, where they won 42%, they won 28.5%, second to the CDU’s 28.6%. The Greenies nearly broke 20% there. In Frankfurt, where the SPD had defeated the CDU in 2008 (33.5 vs 33.2), they won 19.8% this time around, far behind the CDU (32.7%) and only narrowly ahead of the Greenies (19.6%). The SPD won only one district in Frankfurt, the Riederwald. The Greenies won two districts (one of the Nordend districts and Bornheim). Nordend and Bornheim have young populations, are wealthy, and quite “bohemian”. Frankfurt maps are here.
The SPD’s traditional base remains in poorer northern Hesse. The CDU absolutely dominated in the wealthy Frankfurt suburbs, but the FDP and Greenies did extremely well there too. More later. Maybe.