Hesse 2009: Poll Update
A new poll by Forsa is out today for the January 18 Hessian Landtag election. According to this poll, Die Linke would see its 2008 gains evaporate into thin air. The CDU-FDP coalition would have 67 seats in the Landtag (over 60%) and win 56% of the vote together.
CDU 41% 49 seats
SPD 25% 28 seats
FDP 15% 18 seats
Greens 13% 15 seats
Left 4% 0 seats
But there’s also other surprising information. Despite the SPD failing badly, Schäfer-Gümbel’s ratings are up. Koch would defeat him 39-32 in a direct election for Governor (44-24 in December). However, only 55% of voters are aware that Schäfer-Gümbel is the SPD candidate for Minister-President… and only 49% of SPD voters know that! (60% CDU, 66% FDP, 70% Greenies, 42% Linke). The weird matchup of the SPD in Hesse may have a role: 2008 candidate Andrea Ypsilanti is still party leader, but number 2 on the SPD list. The same poll shows that 57% disapprove of Koch, therefore a lot of the CDU votes are for being the least-worst. The high FDP support may be coming from disenchanted CDU supporters, who aren’t fans of the SPD either.
However, it seems as if the election is pretty much over. CDU-FDP wins, game over.