Quebec 2008

It sounds like the Liberal government of Jean Charest is going to try its luck at a majority and third term in office and call a snap December election. The last election was held in 2007 and resulted in the first minority government in Quebecois history.

Charest was first elected in 2003 with a large Liberal majority that became a narrow minority in 2007. Most importantly, the 2007 election was marked by the rise of the right-wing/autonomist ADQ and the third-place and second-worst result of the nationalist left-wing PQ, led by a gay crackhead.

Due to the work of image consultants, Jean Charest, who was formerly hated and mocked, is now enjoying record 60ish approval ratings and the Libs seem set to win another majority. The ADQ, on its part, has collapsed more than 10% in recent by-elections and is either at or below its 2003 level (17%), when it won 4 seats. Furthermore, it recently lost 2 MNAs to the Liberals and further bleeding would endanger their Official Opposition status. The PQ is up very slightly from 2007 and the election seems like a repeat of 2003 all over again.

2007 results were as follows

Liberal 33.08% (-12.91%) winning 48 seats (-28)
ADQ 30.84% (+12.63%) winning 41 seats (+37)
PQ 28.35% (-4.91%) winning 36 seats (-9)
Greenies 3.85%
QS 3.64%

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    Posted on October 28, 2008, in Canada, Election Preview, Quebec. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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